The settlement price for CBOE's bitcoin futures was determined at $6,276 per the 4pm EST close of the Gemini order book. Traditionally the CBOE monthly contracts, have a lot of weight on the price of bitcoin in the second week of every month. The reason for this is that big players have direct control over price and so will place a short or long with CBOE. A few days before expiration they will dump a large portion of their personal stash to push the price down, insuring that their short order goes through. The reverse of this happened last month, that is why after the second week the price quickly fell from the $9K region – because of artificial inflation to support the whales' long orders.
To be clear, I am not saying that it cannot get worse from here. All I am saying is that the worst of the crash has likely passed. Just remember, "be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". Judging the sentiment of the market right now with everyone in despair and waiting for a drop into the 5K or even 4K range, it seems the time this is the time to be greedy. Logically speaking, the whales have nothing to gain by letting the price drop under the 6K support and formally validating the long term bear outlook, that would put all of crypto in a volcanic winter for a very long time and would prevent them from making quick money in this developing asset class.
I know everyone is deeply in the red right now and it hurts. If you have not sold out yet, please do not buy into the 4K FUD – it would be unadvisable to sell out at this point. Strong FUD like this has historically preceded good bull rallies. Given that the whales clearly shorted this month, it is very likely they are longing the July contracts. Currently the RSI is in strongly oversold territory, so there is a good chance that bottom may be in. With all of this in mind, it may be better to throw in some more at this point and BTFD (if you can afford it) to average down your losses – I do not see the price dipping much lower than this.
This is only my opinion and is not to be taken as financial advise. I am not a professional and am not responsible for any actions taken because of this post. Do your own research and please come up with your own opinion. Do not look only to validate what you think, the markets are cutthroat and you need to stay skeptical of everything.
I wish everyone the best for the months and years to come. Welcome early adopters. Welcome to crypto. Welcome to the new world order.